Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 1.728439 1.835147 1.947342 2.074496 2.215088 2.366342 2.542119
2025-11-23 1.567565 1.714205 1.875804 2.068520 2.293990 2.551848 2.872620
2025-11-30 1.475261 1.646420 1.841345 2.082505 2.376798 2.729667 3.193448
2025-12-07 1.383393 1.566932 1.781075 2.053443 2.396809 2.824281 3.412090
2025-12-14 1.297576 1.486558 1.711226 2.003282 2.381223 2.866505 3.559821
2025-12-21 1.239766 1.435277 1.671779 1.985583 2.401942 2.952907 3.770773
2025-12-28 1.207307 1.412421 1.664918 2.007035 2.472903 3.109404 4.094466
2026-01-04 1.163669 1.372682 1.633584 1.993100 2.493167 3.194839 4.320184
2026-01-11 1.139549 1.356107 1.630473 2.015504 2.563686 3.356125 4.680089
2026-01-18 1.109443 1.330061 1.613100 2.016532 2.602619 3.472390 4.980305
2026-01-25 1.095413 1.324068 1.621563 2.053129 2.694763 3.676625 5.456110
2026-02-01 1.054605 1.280825 1.577567 2.012519 2.668151 3.690211 5.594127
2026-02-08 1.014406 1.238049 1.533893 1.972219 2.642542 3.708276 5.753403
2026-02-15 0.988738 1.213973 1.515025 1.967047 2.670916 3.818300 6.106665
2026-02-22 0.970924 1.199729 1.508958 1.979980 2.728056 3.981834 6.594888
2026-03-01 0.941656 1.168616 1.477674 1.953111 2.718620 4.026992 6.841954
2026-03-08 0.908093 1.130474 1.434949 1.906696 2.673901 4.004249 6.935689
2026-03-15 0.885634 1.107095 1.412518 1.890306 2.677927 4.070942 7.244400
2026-03-22 0.875251 1.100231 1.413563 1.910170 2.744186 4.260485 7.883445
2026-03-29 0.855999 1.080174 1.394511 1.897268 2.752746 4.339023 8.264172
2026-04-05 0.847212 1.074689 1.396619 1.918009 2.821470 4.543890 9.027515
2026-04-12 0.833461 1.061617 1.386882 1.918961 2.854560 4.679298 9.636954
2026-04-19 0.829077 1.061882 1.397060 1.952821 2.949879 4.957104 10.757353